136th Kentucky Derby
We are less than a week away from the first Saturday in May, which around these parts is famous for one thing – the Kentucky Derby! I have, for the past few years made a habit of tracking the horses and giving my picks at various points. This year, I am behind, but with a few days left and the field still not completely set, nor gates drawn, here are my thoughts on some of the horses to watch in the quickly settling field…
- Eskendereya – I am only mentioning this horse, as it was likely going to be an odds on favorite for the derby, up until basically a sprain has had the horse scratched before the field was even completely set. I had heard some thoughts that he would go off at under two to one by some folks that seemed to have a pretty good notion on the matter. Todd Pletcher, his trainer (and a trainer that I like who happens to have several other horses in the field this year), thought the horse had a really good shot at Triple Crown, which would have been just awesome. The horse also had Seattle Slew in the close pedigree, which I really like. Alas, he will not even get a chance at the first and grandest of the three. Oddly though, I almost never take a favorite and would not have on this one either, excepting maybe to round out a trifecta bet.
- Looking at Lucky – This is a Bob Baffert trained horse who has looked this spring, but if I am not mistaken all of awesome work has been done on synthetic tracks. I have been burned a bit too much on horses that object to dirt that have done well on synthetic. While I think he will be in the top five, I do not think the transition will have him finish in the money. Indications are, despite this horse having lost to another in the field recently, it will be the morning line favorite.
- Sydney’s Candy - I do not know the trainer that well, nor the horse, but I have to give it some mention as it did take Looking at Lucky. Though the same thing can be said about synthetics for this horse. Additionally, I hold a personal grudge, as Storm Cat in recent pedigree always seems to go against me even when I think it should work otherwise.
- Super Saver – Okay, I don’t understand this myself. A.P. Indy in his pedigree, who I love and almost never bet against (then again this is the derby and look at the pedigrees). It is a Pletcher trained horse, who I also like, but then again no derby wins for him at this point (though he has how many in the field this year – five or six? – that could almost call it the Pletcher Stakes). Anyway, I am just not feeling this horse has what it takes. Something about him turns me off and so I will go with my gut on this one. He will not be at bad odds though, maybe a contender and will pay decent.
- Dublin – This horse reminds me of old-time horses I have read about, that just get out there and seem to grind it out and push for a strong finish every time out. I am not sure, based on a few of his finishes that he will get out front, but I would definitely put him in any trifecta bets and probably not a bad option for a exacta. Lukas is always a favorite trainer too. Has a lot in common in his pedigree with both Summer Bird and Mine that Bird, and we know how much I liked Summer Bird in the Belmont! I would not count him out as a winner if he grinds it just a little harder at the end.
- Paddy O’Praddy – Another horse that looks good on synthetic but in his one dirt start was horrible. I would keep my money away from this guy.
- Line of David – I just don’t think he has what it takes in this field, but admit I have not seen him much and that be why I am giving him short change.
- American Lion – I could almost put a ditto of the above. I don’t think he has it, but also have not seen him much so maybe giving him short change.
- Stately Victor - He did look good in the Bluegrass Stakes, but that is the only time I think he really has done so. I am of the impression that was more a one-off hiccup and not his usual form. Would love to see him come in otherwise, but I don’t think he well and I will keep my money.
- Devil May Care - A Pletcher trained horse that looks likely to step up and run with the boys. I expect that if she does, just because of the filly draw, her odds are likely to go down quiet a bit. She is not a Rachel Alexander though and I am not seeing her win in this field. Right now, I am not even 100% sure that Pletcher will race her in the Derby to be completely honest.
- Mission Impazible – Another Pletcher horse, who was destined to be a middle of the pack on the morning line. I think a large part of that is because his big shows were several weeks ago and he has fallen somewhat off the radar compared to horses that have won big races in the last three weeks or so. Having seen him run though I think he has a good shot to pull the upset over the rest of this fairly contested field. I had picked this horse back earlier and told a lot of folks to watch for him, but then all the hype about Eskendereya was starting to make me doubt I had the right one. Eskendereya is out though and now I am confident this is the horse to watch.
So, quickly, my recommendations are Mission Impazible for the win, Dublin place or show, and fill in either Devil May Care, Looking at Lucky, or Sydney’s Candy for a top three bet.
Quick side note, Rachel Alexander will return to Churchill Downs on Friday for part of the undercard of racing on the Oaks day.
