Kentucky Derby Picks

2015 Kentucky DerbyAs promised yesterday, I am following today with my 2015 Kentucky Derby picks.  If you are curious about the Oaks, that link will take you to my picks for that race that I posted yesterday.  And yes, we are now less that five days until the Derby will run Saturday evening on May 2nd (first Saturday in May) around 6:45 – the fastest and by far, most exciting two minutes in sports.

Without any more ado, here are my picks for the 2015 Run for the Roses!

  1. International Star – I have been big on this horse since early in the year.  The three wins this spring have just proven my point.  And it a Ken and Sarah Ramsey’s owned horse on top of it – which they have had horses in the derby before, but this is the first time I have felt like they had the right horse in contention.
  2. Upstart – Another horse that I have liked since back in the spring.  Throw out the foul on the big race back a few, because he had a winning run and he is also on fire.  I had to think a bit about if I was going to put this horse in my 2nd spot or my 3rd spot, but eventually I just feel like his form is a notch above my third pick.
  3. Materiality – This horse kind of came out of nowhere on me the last month or so, but I have it in here.  As noted above, I almost moved up to my 2nd pick.  I like this horse, and it has Catelleno at the reins and Todd Pletcher doing the training.  There is a lot of upside and potential.
  4. Frosted – I would have probably not included this McGlauglin trained horse in my picks if it had not done so well in the most recent try in the Wood Memorial.  I did drop it down to my 4th pick and could easily bet it behind Carpe Diem (my 5) on Saturday.  But I just have a feeling after a spotted Spring that with the Wood this horse is peaking at the exact right time for the Derby and maybe needs to the extra distance out there to get it done.
  5. Carpe Diem -Another Pletcher trained horse that is just looking awesome.  Unfortunately you have to limit your betting somewhere or the ticket gets to pricey.  I will definitely place a win bet here and probably include it in exotics.  The wins this horse has had over the spring preps says you got to give it a look at the very least and really, there would be nothing wrong with putting him in your top spot – I just have such good feelings about my top three.

I will give an honorable mention to El Kabeir, thought I think he peaked to early (around the end/first of the year) and is not going to be a contender.  Similarly, I like War Story – but I just don’t think his past outings suggest he is a contender either, except maybe a place, but even there, there is just too much talent.  I know I am going against two-horse that are likely to be low odds or even favorites in American Pharoah and Dortmund, but I just have not found what I like there so there it is.