Oaks & Derby Picks

ChurchilldownsAs I usually do, here are some suggestions based on what I think could happen in the Oaks this evening and again in the Kentucky Derby tomorrow evening.  No, I am not any sort of handicapping expert, but I generally do okay on picking the ponies.  My one day at Keeneland was a plus of around $350 total, just as an example.  I will start with a hint on the under card for the races today.

In the 10th race, Will Take Charge is a favorite and a horse you do not want to bet against.  I was going to play an exacta bet with him and add the Norman Invasion horse along with Moonshine Mullin, all boxed – though I think you could put Will Take Charge in the  first spot no matter what.  However, Norman was scratched this morning.  While I don’t like it as much, I did just the two remaining horses in the exacta.

In the Oaks, which is the 11th race on the card I think it is a one horse race again.  This one is Untapable’s race to loose really when you get down to it.  Because of that, the odds are going to be horrid again.  I do like Rosalind, Unbridled Forever, & My Miss Sophia to probably round out the top three spots, so I put all 4 in a box trifecta.  If you just want to cash a ticket (for not much) take Untapable for the win.  I did put a $2 win bet on the longshot Aurelia’s Belle, just because.  I had some early money on Untapable by the way, but the odds were short then as well – my opinion of this girl has not changed.

Moving on to the Derby, the grand-daddy of all horse races, I had a few favorites in the early part of the season and I have some money on them.  A few of them, including Wildcat Red, Tapiture and Vicar’s in Trouble drew into the field.  I have some good locked in odds there.  I really don’t think Vicar’s has in him anymore to be a real contender, but I will be happy he does.  I think that in addition you have to add Intense Holiday and Wicked Strong.  Wicked Strong is on the way outside though, so a big question.  I personally have a distaste for California horses and I just don’t think Chrome is going to be there at the end.  That being said, picking a winner is hard is such a talented crowded field.  I put a box trifecta on Wildcat Red, Tapiture, Intesnse Holiday, and Wicked Strong.

Best of luck to all bettors and let me know who and what you have in the comments!

** – Image is from Churchilldowns (I think) and was listed as free to use.